* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/04/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 54 57 63 71 77 84 86 89 91 88 V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 54 57 63 71 77 84 86 89 91 88 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 51 51 51 53 56 60 65 71 76 80 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 24 20 17 15 12 1 6 1 7 2 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 6 1 1 2 7 6 8 3 1 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 320 322 304 305 309 307 341 333 96 336 228 230 208 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 157 157 158 158 160 160 160 159 158 156 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 134 134 132 134 133 133 132 133 134 134 132 127 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.2 -51.3 -51.0 -50.1 -49.5 -48.2 -47.2 -47.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 57 58 59 59 58 56 53 48 44 49 50 53 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 22 21 23 25 28 32 35 39 40 42 48 47 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -38 -35 -31 -17 -18 -3 4 22 41 66 82 102 200 MB DIV 44 64 72 61 56 39 48 50 63 47 57 32 40 700-850 TADV 8 15 18 19 10 7 5 5 1 7 3 17 -2 LAND (KM) 680 720 761 786 812 864 916 958 976 1021 1120 1227 1112 LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.4 24.8 25.1 25.3 25.8 26.3 26.7 26.9 27.4 28.4 29.6 31.0 LONG(DEG W) 63.1 63.1 63.1 63.1 63.1 63.1 63.1 63.1 63.2 63.5 63.9 64.5 65.2 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 53 53 54 54 54 50 43 38 36 31 34 25 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 12. 16. 16. 18. 22. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 4. 7. 13. 21. 27. 34. 36. 39. 41. 38. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/04/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/04/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)