* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132012 09/04/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 35 36 36 36 38 39 40 39 36 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 35 36 36 36 38 39 40 39 36 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 35 37 37 37 39 42 46 48 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 21 23 21 23 29 29 20 5 11 13 20 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -3 0 -5 -3 -3 6 0 1 4 3 SHEAR DIR 282 299 304 305 307 304 298 289 349 50 36 40 52 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 130 132 133 135 135 135 135 136 136 135 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 109 111 113 113 113 111 110 111 113 113 110 108 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.0 -54.9 -54.8 -54.5 -55.1 -54.6 -55.1 -54.6 -55.3 -54.8 -54.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 52 51 48 49 49 50 51 48 44 42 43 43 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -12 -31 -42 -49 -61 -54 -39 -38 -38 -43 -41 -50 200 MB DIV -1 -28 -29 -27 -35 -6 3 -22 -14 -28 -28 -45 -41 700-850 TADV 3 3 2 1 2 2 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2509 2476 2443 2393 2344 2236 2180 2162 2141 2088 2001 1952 1917 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.6 26.9 27.8 28.3 28.5 28.7 29.2 30.0 30.5 30.8 LONG(DEG W) 42.5 42.9 43.2 43.6 44.0 44.4 44.5 44.4 44.4 44.4 44.5 44.4 44.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 4 1 1 2 3 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 25 24 25 24 23 23 23 20 16 15 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 6. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132012 THIRTEEN 09/04/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132012 THIRTEEN 09/04/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)