* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP102012 09/04/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 25 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 21 20 16 14 11 13 10 18 15 17 18 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 1 0 -3 -1 -2 1 -1 1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 46 57 62 62 55 81 92 117 120 136 153 177 176 SST (C) 26.3 26.0 25.5 24.7 23.7 21.9 20.7 20.0 19.5 19.2 19.2 19.0 18.8 POT. INT. (KT) 127 124 118 110 99 80 66 58 57 56 56 56 57 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 70 69 66 64 64 60 53 50 41 36 30 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 16 15 14 11 10 8 6 4 3 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR 21 19 17 20 20 12 9 2 1 -15 -20 -21 -6 200 MB DIV 39 27 0 -18 -14 5 4 0 14 2 2 -1 0 700-850 TADV -9 -11 -5 -1 0 -1 0 0 -2 -3 -10 -8 -4 LAND (KM) 434 430 455 501 515 527 579 629 671 662 657 652 634 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.9 22.5 23.2 23.8 24.9 25.8 26.5 27.0 27.3 27.4 27.7 28.1 LONG(DEG W) 114.2 115.1 116.0 116.9 117.8 119.2 120.4 121.2 121.8 122.0 122.0 122.1 122.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 9 8 6 4 3 1 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -9. -10. -11. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -10. -13. -15. -18. -19. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -13. -26. -40. -56. -69. -79. -86. -91. -94. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102012 JOHN 09/04/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)