* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/04/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 55 56 57 61 65 71 76 78 79 79 73 V (KT) LAND 55 54 55 56 57 61 65 71 76 78 79 79 73 V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 55 55 55 55 56 56 58 61 65 70 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 23 23 19 24 16 15 8 13 9 9 9 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 -1 2 -2 3 5 9 2 1 -2 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 305 303 290 294 291 290 287 302 307 298 276 272 7 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 157 159 158 158 158 158 159 158 155 152 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 134 133 134 133 133 132 131 132 132 131 128 123 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -51.7 -51.4 -50.2 -49.8 -48.5 -48.2 -46.7 -46.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 59 60 59 60 55 54 50 48 44 48 46 51 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 22 24 25 26 28 31 36 39 41 41 43 41 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -43 -40 -17 -36 -26 -26 2 6 33 39 66 66 200 MB DIV 41 61 66 58 26 55 32 55 42 54 29 100 26 700-850 TADV 13 15 26 14 17 22 15 9 7 8 5 7 -1 LAND (KM) 758 792 827 857 887 928 989 1024 1059 1115 1217 1248 1120 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 24.9 25.2 25.5 25.8 26.2 26.8 27.2 27.6 28.2 29.2 30.5 31.9 LONG(DEG W) 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.7 62.9 63.2 63.4 63.9 64.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 2 3 4 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 47 47 48 47 46 43 39 35 33 36 31 20 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 15. 16. 17. 17. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 16. 21. 23. 24. 24. 18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/04/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/04/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)