* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132012 09/04/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 33 35 36 39 41 43 44 45 44 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 33 35 36 39 41 43 44 45 44 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 31 32 34 35 39 44 49 53 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 22 20 23 23 26 23 9 3 3 9 6 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 -3 0 1 0 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 305 305 296 300 304 293 273 263 88 34 42 32 332 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 130 132 133 134 135 136 136 136 136 137 134 131 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 112 114 114 114 114 113 112 112 113 111 108 104 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.1 -55.1 -54.9 -55.1 -55.1 -55.3 -55.4 -55.3 -55.0 -54.3 -53.6 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 50 47 49 51 51 50 49 46 46 44 48 45 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 6 5 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -31 -42 -52 -60 -62 -42 -29 -28 -28 -26 -48 -57 200 MB DIV -18 -25 -25 -39 -19 6 -19 -16 -40 -16 -28 -34 -30 700-850 TADV 2 1 1 2 3 1 1 3 1 -1 1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 2447 2402 2358 2310 2262 2177 2123 2077 2021 1948 1838 1743 1652 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.5 26.8 27.2 27.5 28.3 28.9 29.4 29.9 30.6 31.7 32.7 33.8 LONG(DEG W) 43.1 43.5 43.9 44.3 44.6 44.6 44.3 44.1 44.2 44.2 44.1 43.9 43.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 3 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 26 25 25 23 22 20 18 15 12 7 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132012 THIRTEEN 09/04/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -25.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132012 THIRTEEN 09/04/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)