* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP102012 09/04/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 24 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 22 20 18 16 10 13 24 27 25 30 20 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 2 1 -1 2 1 -6 0 0 -4 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 52 60 54 61 78 99 115 130 137 136 156 177 180 SST (C) 25.9 25.4 24.7 23.7 22.7 21.2 20.4 20.0 19.8 19.3 18.9 18.2 17.8 POT. INT. (KT) 122 117 110 99 88 72 62 58 58 58 58 59 59 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 70 69 66 64 66 61 55 51 46 39 36 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 14 13 11 9 8 5 4 2 2 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 14 15 14 14 3 -2 -2 -5 -5 -14 1 17 200 MB DIV 22 1 -22 -12 -3 4 3 23 9 12 18 8 14 700-850 TADV -9 -4 -1 -1 -2 2 0 -1 -1 -4 -3 -2 6 LAND (KM) 421 435 472 486 499 540 595 602 577 524 475 482 355 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.8 23.4 24.0 24.5 25.5 26.1 26.8 27.3 28.2 29.1 30.1 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 115.2 116.0 116.7 117.6 118.4 119.8 120.7 121.0 120.9 120.9 120.8 121.4 121.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 8 7 4 3 4 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -13. -13. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -4. -9. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -15. -17. -18. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -11. -17. -31. -47. -64. -78. -89. -98.-100.-103. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102012 JOHN 09/04/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)