* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/04/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 55 56 58 63 68 74 80 83 83 85 81 V (KT) LAND 55 54 55 56 58 63 68 74 80 83 83 85 81 V (KT) LGE mod 55 54 53 53 54 55 57 58 61 65 72 77 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 22 18 22 13 12 21 9 5 4 10 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -2 -1 -1 2 6 2 3 2 0 -5 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 311 299 293 291 280 291 293 296 300 168 249 206 192 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 159 158 158 158 160 159 158 155 151 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 133 133 134 133 131 132 134 134 133 131 129 123 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -51.4 -50.9 -49.4 -48.4 -47.6 -46.9 -47.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 12 10 11 9 700-500 MB RH 62 58 60 55 57 53 50 47 49 46 50 50 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 23 24 23 26 29 33 37 41 42 42 45 45 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -36 -23 -34 -33 -19 -14 7 28 44 57 67 73 200 MB DIV 32 65 49 25 46 34 42 46 49 19 88 51 17 700-850 TADV 17 20 12 13 12 10 11 4 2 4 10 0 1 LAND (KM) 787 817 847 875 903 944 965 1007 1058 1133 1212 1134 1005 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.1 25.4 25.7 26.0 26.4 26.6 27.1 27.7 28.5 29.4 30.9 32.8 LONG(DEG W) 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.9 63.3 63.8 64.4 65.0 65.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 3 4 5 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 48 48 48 48 47 43 41 37 36 39 30 21 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 18. 17. 19. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 19. 25. 28. 28. 30. 26. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/04/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/04/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)