* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL132012 09/04/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 41 44 47 50 52 52 52 49 48 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 41 44 47 50 52 52 52 49 48 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 40 41 43 45 48 52 57 60 59 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 23 21 21 23 17 4 8 6 13 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 -1 -1 -1 0 1 0 0 2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 311 290 294 306 295 286 269 209 60 39 54 29 344 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 134 135 135 136 136 138 137 135 134 130 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 112 113 114 113 113 113 114 113 112 109 106 104 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.3 -55.1 -55.3 -55.3 -55.0 -55.9 -55.5 -55.4 -54.6 -54.1 -52.8 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 47 51 50 51 50 48 47 46 45 44 46 48 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 7 8 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -40 -50 -60 -60 -49 -30 -22 -26 -36 -47 -47 -40 200 MB DIV -3 -19 -36 -14 0 -9 -14 -28 -24 -20 -30 -40 -11 700-850 TADV 2 2 4 3 1 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2370 2331 2291 2244 2197 2137 2115 2063 1969 1883 1785 1706 1644 LAT (DEG N) 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.8 28.2 28.8 29.2 29.8 30.6 31.3 32.0 32.8 33.6 LONG(DEG W) 43.5 43.8 44.0 44.2 44.3 44.2 43.6 43.3 43.6 44.0 44.7 44.6 44.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 24 23 22 22 22 21 17 13 11 11 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 17. 17. 14. 13. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132012 MICHAEL 09/04/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132012 MICHAEL 09/04/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)