* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP102012 09/04/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 26 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 17 19 17 14 11 15 23 25 27 30 27 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 1 0 0 0 -3 -2 -6 -4 -8 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 54 45 58 83 99 111 129 140 149 158 168 175 199 SST (C) 25.3 24.5 23.6 22.7 21.8 20.7 20.1 19.4 18.8 18.3 17.8 16.9 16.6 POT. INT. (KT) 116 107 98 89 79 66 60 59 59 59 59 60 60 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 72 69 66 64 65 64 60 55 50 42 40 36 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 12 11 10 8 6 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 17 11 13 7 -1 -4 -1 -6 -10 -3 11 34 200 MB DIV -8 -22 -16 -5 0 14 2 20 3 20 19 24 24 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -2 0 1 0 0 -3 -3 -2 3 -2 -6 LAND (KM) 411 453 447 461 485 512 547 498 466 407 289 176 43 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.7 24.3 24.8 25.3 26.3 27.1 28.2 29.3 30.6 31.9 33.3 34.8 LONG(DEG W) 115.9 116.7 117.4 118.2 119.0 119.9 120.5 120.6 120.8 120.8 120.7 121.4 121.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -12. -16. -16. -16. -17. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -9. -14. -17. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -16. -17. -17. -18. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -11. -17. -32. -49. -65. -80. -88. -96.-100.-104. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102012 JOHN 09/04/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)