* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/04/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 57 59 62 67 72 78 78 83 82 80 V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 57 59 62 67 72 78 78 83 82 80 V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 55 56 56 57 58 59 62 67 72 78 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 19 22 17 12 15 9 7 6 3 3 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 2 7 4 6 5 5 5 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 306 296 292 287 296 256 289 290 301 239 358 210 195 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 158 158 158 158 160 161 160 158 154 150 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 132 134 133 132 131 133 134 134 134 132 130 122 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -52.0 -51.6 -50.4 -50.2 -48.7 -48.4 -47.0 -47.3 -46.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 58 58 55 56 56 51 52 48 50 49 51 49 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 23 24 26 28 31 34 38 42 41 46 46 47 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -25 -38 -37 -21 -23 5 14 46 58 79 73 84 200 MB DIV 53 44 34 37 46 31 60 24 73 31 87 52 55 700-850 TADV 20 11 13 16 27 12 10 6 9 10 6 3 -3 LAND (KM) 812 837 863 888 913 955 968 1000 1040 1124 1204 1056 943 LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.4 25.6 25.9 26.1 26.5 26.7 27.1 27.6 28.5 29.7 31.6 34.1 LONG(DEG W) 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.8 63.1 63.6 64.3 65.0 65.5 65.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 6 8 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 49 49 49 47 46 42 40 36 33 34 25 24 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 15. 19. 18. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 23. 23. 28. 27. 25. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/04/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/04/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)