* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL132012 09/04/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 52 54 57 61 62 62 64 62 61 58 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 52 54 57 61 62 62 64 62 61 58 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 52 53 55 57 58 61 64 68 70 70 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 23 21 20 20 25 16 10 5 3 7 10 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -2 2 -2 -1 -2 -4 0 -1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 281 291 299 293 277 267 247 203 192 79 44 357 359 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 135 136 136 136 138 135 136 134 132 131 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 114 113 113 112 113 113 110 111 109 108 108 107 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.4 -55.4 -55.4 -55.1 -55.6 -54.5 -54.9 -54.4 -54.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 49 49 48 47 46 44 45 46 45 45 45 48 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 9 10 12 13 13 12 14 15 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -46 -57 -60 -55 -38 -21 -14 -31 -39 -45 -40 -65 200 MB DIV -15 -35 -11 0 12 -11 20 -30 -12 -35 5 -35 -32 700-850 TADV 3 5 5 2 1 4 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 2314 2262 2210 2176 2143 2118 2070 2019 1970 1915 1861 1757 1627 LAT (DEG N) 27.3 27.8 28.2 28.5 28.8 29.2 29.8 30.3 30.7 31.2 31.8 32.6 33.5 LONG(DEG W) 43.6 43.8 43.9 44.0 44.0 43.5 43.1 43.1 43.3 43.4 43.2 43.8 44.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 4 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 22 22 22 22 21 20 18 15 11 7 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 726 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 16. 17. 17. 19. 17. 17. 13. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132012 MICHAEL 09/04/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132012 MICHAEL 09/04/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)