* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP102012 09/04/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 26 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 14 15 13 11 8 11 16 27 26 28 28 27 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -1 -2 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -3 -7 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 50 60 83 99 117 120 131 145 164 177 196 201 220 SST (C) 23.9 23.0 22.1 21.4 20.7 20.0 19.4 19.0 18.7 18.4 18.3 17.3 17.4 POT. INT. (KT) 102 92 82 74 67 59 58 58 59 59 59 59 59 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 70 66 65 68 65 60 56 47 41 34 33 27 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 11 10 9 9 7 5 4 2 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 15 12 6 6 -3 1 1 -6 0 12 30 54 200 MB DIV -11 -1 6 8 7 4 10 0 7 14 8 7 5 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 1 0 -1 -2 -3 0 -2 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 465 464 467 500 543 579 560 510 457 381 290 195 44 LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.6 25.2 25.6 26.0 27.0 27.8 28.7 29.5 30.6 31.7 32.9 34.2 LONG(DEG W) 117.3 118.0 118.7 119.4 120.1 120.8 121.1 121.0 120.8 120.5 120.2 120.9 120.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 7 5 5 4 5 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 13 CX,CY: -8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -14. -18. -21. -21. -20. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. -2. -7. -12. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -12. -18. -35. -52. -68. -81. -90. -95. -98.-100. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102012 JOHN 09/04/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)