* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/05/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 57 59 65 71 78 83 83 85 83 80 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 57 59 65 71 78 83 83 85 83 80 V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 56 57 57 59 61 63 67 72 75 78 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 22 23 15 11 11 5 6 2 3 5 9 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 5 6 8 8 6 8 8 0 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 303 308 308 299 288 278 301 318 350 342 188 202 175 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 158 158 158 158 160 160 160 159 155 149 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 131 133 133 132 132 133 133 135 137 134 129 121 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -51.2 -50.6 -49.2 -48.6 -47.0 -47.6 -47.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 58 54 56 56 53 53 47 49 49 50 49 50 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 22 25 25 27 31 34 38 41 40 43 42 44 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -40 -38 -25 -27 -19 5 23 38 57 63 75 122 200 MB DIV 33 24 34 48 30 38 38 46 27 52 55 36 58 700-850 TADV 8 11 16 23 12 8 4 2 5 13 4 5 -7 LAND (KM) 808 828 848 869 889 926 965 987 1003 1106 1153 1016 876 LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.3 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.3 26.7 27.0 27.3 28.4 30.0 32.3 34.9 LONG(DEG W) 62.7 62.7 62.7 62.7 62.7 62.8 62.9 63.2 63.8 64.6 65.4 65.6 65.3 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 5 7 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 46 45 45 45 44 42 39 36 32 30 23 23 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 9. 13. 16. 15. 17. 16. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 23. 28. 28. 30. 28. 25. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/05/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/05/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)