* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL132012 09/05/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 50 51 54 59 62 62 62 60 59 57 V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 50 51 54 59 62 62 62 60 59 57 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 48 49 50 53 55 59 63 66 67 66 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 20 19 19 17 11 10 2 11 5 8 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 3 1 2 -4 -7 2 0 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 286 299 290 276 276 243 210 174 103 72 67 14 3 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 135 135 136 136 136 136 136 135 133 133 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 112 113 113 113 113 111 111 111 110 109 110 108 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.6 -55.7 -55.3 -55.1 -54.9 -54.6 -54.8 -53.9 -53.5 -52.3 -51.5 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 47 48 44 43 42 43 45 47 45 43 40 38 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 13 14 15 14 15 15 16 18 850 MB ENV VOR -44 -49 -53 -51 -38 -17 -16 -14 -27 -31 -31 -32 -59 200 MB DIV -29 1 -3 8 13 13 -6 -13 -10 -26 -17 -26 -55 700-850 TADV 5 5 3 3 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 2300 2262 2223 2193 2163 2129 2085 2026 1960 1883 1817 1695 1556 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.5 28.8 29.3 29.8 30.3 30.8 31.4 31.9 32.7 33.6 LONG(DEG W) 43.7 43.8 43.8 43.6 43.4 42.9 42.7 42.9 43.3 43.7 44.1 45.2 46.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 21 21 22 21 21 22 22 22 20 18 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 4. 3. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 14. 17. 17. 17. 15. 14. 12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132012 MICHAEL 09/05/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132012 MICHAEL 09/05/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)