* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/05/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 61 64 70 76 81 83 86 85 82 80 V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 61 64 70 76 81 83 86 85 82 80 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 57 58 59 60 62 65 69 73 77 79 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 21 15 14 16 16 12 6 2 5 10 8 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 7 6 6 5 5 7 10 10 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 310 301 302 286 283 269 248 283 349 149 159 205 200 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.6 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 160 160 159 160 161 160 158 152 147 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 134 133 134 134 131 133 136 136 135 132 127 121 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -51.6 -51.4 -50.1 -49.3 -48.3 -47.4 -47.6 -47.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 9 7 700-500 MB RH 53 55 57 54 55 51 48 52 51 50 47 50 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 23 24 25 28 31 34 38 38 41 41 39 40 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -37 -21 -24 -29 -4 -2 30 33 57 61 112 157 200 MB DIV 31 30 43 23 26 53 51 80 27 43 59 76 20 700-850 TADV 5 15 19 11 14 8 1 5 4 7 -4 4 18 LAND (KM) 820 844 867 886 906 940 958 989 1049 1165 1117 1009 761 LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.5 26.7 27.1 27.8 29.1 30.9 33.4 36.4 LONG(DEG W) 62.9 63.0 63.0 63.1 63.1 63.0 63.1 63.5 64.2 64.8 65.2 65.2 64.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 2 2 2 1 2 4 6 8 11 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 46 46 45 45 43 40 38 34 31 30 24 15 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 14. 16. 15. 13. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 21. 26. 28. 31. 30. 27. 25. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/05/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/05/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)