* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL132012 09/05/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 49 51 57 61 67 68 68 69 65 59 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 49 51 57 61 67 68 68 69 65 59 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 46 47 49 52 57 62 66 67 67 67 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 16 17 16 8 2 6 5 4 3 7 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 5 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 -2 4 3 SHEAR DIR 298 283 269 254 251 187 148 32 33 129 274 3 36 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 135 137 137 136 136 137 134 132 132 132 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 113 113 115 114 111 111 112 110 106 108 109 106 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.8 -55.3 -55.0 -55.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.0 -53.4 -52.0 -51.7 -51.0 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 49 45 42 41 41 40 45 38 40 40 40 37 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 13 14 12 15 15 18 18 18 19 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -54 -46 -32 -25 -20 -15 -32 -35 -45 -47 -61 -71 200 MB DIV 2 -4 2 13 22 9 -21 -4 -28 -20 -26 -73 -51 700-850 TADV 5 3 2 0 2 0 2 -2 0 -1 1 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 2252 2217 2181 2151 2122 2089 2052 1979 1892 1822 1799 1709 1589 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.2 28.5 28.9 29.3 29.8 30.2 30.8 31.5 32.0 32.0 32.6 33.5 LONG(DEG W) 43.9 43.9 43.8 43.5 43.1 42.6 42.5 42.8 43.2 43.7 44.3 45.1 45.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 4 2 3 4 4 2 3 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 22 22 21 20 20 21 20 19 20 18 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 756 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 3. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 16. 22. 23. 23. 24. 20. 14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132012 MICHAEL 09/05/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132012 MICHAEL 09/05/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)