* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/05/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 66 69 75 80 84 86 87 85 82 80 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 66 69 75 80 84 86 87 85 82 80 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 63 64 65 66 68 70 73 76 77 77 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 14 16 14 14 5 12 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 6 2 6 7 8 5 11 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 305 283 270 275 277 280 280 197 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.2 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 160 160 160 161 160 157 153 148 142 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 133 132 134 133 132 134 135 134 132 128 124 111 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -51.5 -51.0 -49.6 -49.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 53 53 51 49 49 49 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 23 25 26 28 30 34 36 39 39 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -22 -23 -29 -27 -6 11 31 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 44 39 34 41 47 51 31 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 20 7 7 10 2 6 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 855 873 892 913 933 972 984 1046 1157 1187 1061 845 514 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.8 27.0 27.7 28.8 30.4 32.7 35.7 39.2 LONG(DEG W) 62.8 62.9 62.9 62.9 62.9 63.0 63.3 63.8 64.3 64.7 64.9 64.4 63.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 5 7 10 13 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 46 45 45 43 41 37 35 34 34 21 15 31 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 14. 16. 15. 14. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 20. 24. 26. 27. 25. 23. 20. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/05/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/05/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)