* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL132012 09/05/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 52 55 62 66 67 67 69 69 68 69 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 52 55 62 66 67 67 69 69 68 69 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 49 51 55 61 65 67 67 68 67 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 16 15 9 13 7 8 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 1 3 2 -3 -4 -1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 293 275 264 240 202 136 35 13 331 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 137 137 137 136 135 133 132 132 129 126 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 114 115 115 113 112 111 108 108 108 105 101 100 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -55.6 -55.3 -55.4 -55.1 -54.6 -54.6 -53.2 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 44 42 42 42 41 40 39 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 13 13 13 16 17 16 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -43 -30 -29 -15 -13 -25 -33 -42 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 3 0 8 5 -3 -11 -25 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2219 2184 2150 2126 2103 2050 1948 1882 1822 1738 1627 1557 1530 LAT (DEG N) 28.2 28.6 29.0 29.4 29.7 30.3 31.1 31.6 32.0 32.6 33.4 33.9 34.1 LONG(DEG W) 43.6 43.4 43.2 42.9 42.5 42.3 42.8 43.2 43.7 44.3 45.1 45.6 45.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 5 5 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 21 21 20 19 20 20 19 16 13 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 5. 4. 3. 6. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 17. 21. 22. 22. 24. 24. 23. 24. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132012 MICHAEL 09/05/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132012 MICHAEL 09/05/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)