* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/05/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 72 76 79 85 90 91 90 89 87 85 80 V (KT) LAND 65 69 72 76 79 85 90 91 90 89 87 85 80 V (KT) LGE mod 65 69 72 74 75 76 77 80 82 84 86 89 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 19 16 13 12 3 2 10 4 9 21 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 3 5 4 2 9 6 -2 -2 -4 0 8 SHEAR DIR 290 268 274 267 294 263 230 183 278 259 234 213 184 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.5 27.8 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 160 160 160 159 158 156 150 146 138 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 133 132 133 133 133 134 134 132 129 127 123 92 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -51.4 -51.0 -49.1 -49.0 -47.8 -47.1 -46.9 -47.5 -46.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 7 4 700-500 MB RH 55 54 53 50 50 47 48 46 48 46 50 50 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 26 28 31 31 35 39 39 39 39 40 42 44 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -20 -19 -23 -12 2 29 25 39 40 89 127 156 200 MB DIV 50 45 32 41 50 22 63 24 57 37 86 92 95 700-850 TADV 11 8 8 7 12 7 5 2 12 3 4 -10 -53 LAND (KM) 879 903 926 945 965 990 1045 1131 1232 1143 1038 723 384 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.7 27.0 27.6 28.5 29.6 31.4 33.7 37.3 41.7 LONG(DEG W) 62.7 62.8 62.8 62.9 62.9 63.1 63.4 63.9 64.4 64.6 64.3 62.9 60.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 2 2 2 2 4 5 7 10 15 21 24 HEAT CONTENT 44 43 41 40 38 35 34 37 27 25 13 36 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 13. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 14. 20. 25. 26. 25. 24. 22. 20. 15. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/05/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/05/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 7( 13) 10( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)