* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/06/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 71 74 77 83 86 87 88 90 87 80 77 V (KT) LAND 65 68 71 74 77 83 86 87 88 90 87 80 77 V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 69 71 72 73 75 76 78 82 85 85 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 16 12 12 6 1 4 1 9 10 24 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 4 4 3 13 13 8 1 -5 -2 0 4 SHEAR DIR 266 276 279 265 249 267 166 67 191 246 239 200 194 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.1 26.5 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 160 160 160 160 157 153 148 141 123 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 132 132 132 132 133 135 134 132 130 124 109 79 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -51.6 -51.6 -50.8 -50.0 -49.0 -47.9 -47.4 -48.1 -47.9 -46.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 4 1 700-500 MB RH 52 51 50 49 47 49 48 49 47 47 50 48 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 28 29 30 32 35 37 38 40 42 40 37 42 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -19 -18 -10 -5 20 33 47 56 66 116 146 192 200 MB DIV 53 48 50 64 32 50 30 57 37 55 67 47 97 700-850 TADV 6 8 8 9 4 6 3 5 3 3 -5 -23 -86 LAND (KM) 917 934 951 965 978 1003 1056 1164 1217 1105 869 494 180 LAT (DEG N) 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.7 26.8 27.1 27.7 28.8 30.3 32.7 35.8 39.9 44.3 LONG(DEG W) 62.5 62.6 62.7 62.8 62.8 63.0 63.4 63.9 64.4 64.4 63.7 62.0 59.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 2 5 7 10 14 19 23 24 HEAT CONTENT 42 41 40 39 37 35 35 37 22 23 30 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 11. 12. 14. 12. 9. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 21. 22. 23. 25. 22. 15. 12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/06/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/06/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 6( 12) 9( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 2( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)