* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL132012 09/06/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 83 85 86 85 85 86 81 79 68 60 57 V (KT) LAND 75 80 83 85 86 85 85 86 81 79 68 60 57 V (KT) LGE mod 75 83 86 87 86 84 81 80 79 78 77 73 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 15 7 11 9 6 1 2 4 12 24 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -4 -1 -6 -2 -4 -1 -2 0 -2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 238 193 182 177 110 65 12 284 180 233 352 16 27 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 137 137 135 134 133 132 130 129 128 128 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 114 113 113 111 109 109 109 106 105 104 105 104 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.0 -54.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -53.2 -52.6 -51.7 -51.5 -50.4 -50.5 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 43 42 40 39 38 39 41 44 41 42 39 34 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 11 14 15 16 16 17 19 18 21 17 18 25 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -21 -7 -5 1 -4 -10 -17 -20 -24 -17 -32 -45 200 MB DIV -5 21 32 -16 -16 -4 -6 1 -23 4 -32 -38 -18 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 2 0 -1 -2 0 1 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 2169 2149 2131 2101 2072 2018 1965 1880 1795 1706 1638 1520 1355 LAT (DEG N) 29.1 29.4 29.7 30.1 30.4 30.9 31.3 31.9 32.5 33.1 33.5 34.3 35.5 LONG(DEG W) 42.4 42.1 41.8 41.7 41.5 41.6 41.9 42.5 43.1 43.8 44.5 45.5 46.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 2 3 4 4 4 4 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 12 11 11 10 11 13 13 8 9 8 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 11. 13. 14. 13. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 5. 1. 1. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 10. 11. 6. 4. -7. -15. -18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132012 MICHAEL 09/06/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132012 MICHAEL 09/06/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 9( 14) 10( 22) 10( 30) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)