* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/06/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 69 71 74 81 82 84 82 87 85 76 66 V (KT) LAND 65 66 69 71 74 81 82 84 82 87 85 76 66 V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 67 68 69 71 72 74 76 79 80 75 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 14 15 14 15 4 8 3 11 18 24 55 83 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 4 4 3 14 7 11 -2 -6 -1 -4 -8 SHEAR DIR 267 252 248 254 253 152 202 142 223 253 219 207 212 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.5 27.7 24.4 19.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 158 160 159 158 154 150 146 136 105 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 132 131 133 134 134 132 130 127 120 94 75 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.1 -49.8 -49.5 -47.9 -47.4 -47.4 -47.7 -47.8 -49.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 6 3 0 700-500 MB RH 51 52 52 48 48 51 49 48 46 51 50 42 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 28 30 31 32 37 36 39 36 42 42 41 43 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -13 0 1 9 43 40 51 55 103 131 129 48 200 MB DIV 33 48 76 38 25 65 9 58 22 74 44 104 89 700-850 TADV 7 9 7 4 3 5 3 8 4 7 -1 -42 -92 LAND (KM) 932 952 972 984 996 1024 1110 1255 1212 1058 756 408 141 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.3 28.2 29.6 31.4 34.0 37.2 41.5 46.4 LONG(DEG W) 62.4 62.4 62.4 62.5 62.6 63.0 63.4 63.7 63.8 63.3 62.1 60.4 58.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 4 6 8 11 15 20 24 25 HEAT CONTENT 55 53 49 46 43 36 35 31 27 18 35 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 8. 11. 8. 14. 13. 11. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 16. 17. 19. 17. 22. 20. 11. 2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/06/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/06/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 5( 10) 8( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)