* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL132012 09/06/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 101 102 101 99 96 96 90 87 78 69 60 53 V (KT) LAND 95 101 102 101 99 96 96 90 87 78 69 60 53 V (KT) LGE mod 95 103 103 100 96 90 86 83 81 79 76 70 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 7 11 9 11 3 3 2 5 20 30 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -1 -5 -3 -6 -3 -3 0 -1 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 193 186 177 109 101 23 253 165 226 324 3 23 31 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 136 135 134 135 132 130 129 128 127 124 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 113 112 111 110 110 108 106 106 105 103 100 99 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -53.7 -53.0 -51.9 -51.6 -50.8 -50.6 -50.8 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 42 40 40 38 41 40 42 39 44 41 37 31 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 14 15 16 16 17 19 16 20 19 20 21 24 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -6 -5 1 -10 -13 -16 -29 -21 -21 -25 -24 -16 200 MB DIV 21 33 -17 -16 -13 7 -17 -8 -1 -5 -42 -20 -9 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 1 1 -1 1 -1 0 0 1 -10 8 LAND (KM) 2153 2126 2098 2070 2042 1989 1908 1831 1746 1648 1538 1441 1341 LAT (DEG N) 29.4 29.8 30.1 30.4 30.7 31.1 31.7 32.3 32.9 33.6 34.3 35.0 35.8 LONG(DEG W) 42.0 41.8 41.6 41.6 41.5 41.8 42.3 42.7 43.3 44.0 45.0 45.7 46.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 11 11 10 11 13 12 10 7 7 5 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -20. -27. -34. -39. -43. -45. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 3. 8. 12. 14. 14. 13. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 3. 7. 6. 6. 6. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. 1. -5. -8. -17. -26. -35. -42. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132012 MICHAEL 09/06/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 35.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132012 MICHAEL 09/06/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 24( 37) 21( 50) 19( 60) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)