* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/06/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 67 68 70 75 75 81 80 84 79 72 60 V (KT) LAND 65 65 67 68 70 75 75 81 80 84 79 72 60 V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 66 66 67 68 70 72 75 78 78 72 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 8 12 17 13 2 3 6 9 19 27 57 89 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 4 5 7 12 13 5 -2 -6 -2 -9 -13 SHEAR DIR 276 245 244 267 269 26 41 133 271 246 248 218 207 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.2 28.8 28.3 27.5 25.0 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 158 158 159 161 155 150 143 132 108 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 130 131 132 133 137 134 130 123 113 93 75 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.0 -50.2 -49.6 -48.4 -47.5 -47.1 -47.2 -47.2 -47.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 9 5 2 0 700-500 MB RH 51 53 49 50 51 51 53 48 50 48 45 33 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 29 31 32 34 36 34 40 38 41 40 42 41 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -1 0 6 26 44 54 52 67 110 118 123 158 200 MB DIV 31 67 50 36 30 22 43 15 61 78 21 90 63 700-850 TADV 10 8 2 7 8 3 4 1 5 -7 0 -60 -81 LAND (KM) 942 947 952 963 975 1020 1096 1278 1267 1002 733 473 213 LAT (DEG N) 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.6 26.7 27.2 28.0 29.7 32.1 34.9 37.9 41.1 44.5 LONG(DEG W) 62.4 62.4 62.4 62.5 62.6 62.8 63.1 63.1 62.7 62.0 60.9 59.6 58.2 STM SPEED (KT) 1 0 1 2 2 3 7 10 13 15 16 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 51 50 50 47 44 35 32 25 26 12 14 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. 10. 5. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -21. -24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 10. 9. 11. 10. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 5. 10. 10. 16. 15. 19. 14. 7. -5. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/06/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/06/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 5( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)