* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL132012 09/06/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 103 103 102 100 97 95 91 80 70 59 46 37 V (KT) LAND 100 103 103 102 100 97 95 91 80 70 59 46 37 V (KT) LGE mod 100 104 103 99 96 90 86 83 80 75 68 61 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 3 5 4 3 3 2 7 8 14 28 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -8 0 0 -1 -2 1 -4 0 1 4 6 -2 SHEAR DIR 196 187 168 138 82 334 174 158 23 31 53 26 30 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 135 135 135 132 130 128 127 126 124 121 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 112 110 110 111 109 106 104 103 103 101 98 96 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -53.7 -52.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.1 -50.9 -50.1 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 42 41 39 40 40 41 44 44 42 40 38 44 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 15 16 15 15 17 18 18 19 18 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -11 -5 -11 -16 -16 -32 -28 -32 -43 -64 -76 -49 200 MB DIV 28 -7 -20 -9 7 -23 -16 -3 -23 -68 -34 -26 9 700-850 TADV 3 2 2 1 2 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -3 -10 -1 LAND (KM) 2127 2100 2074 2040 2007 1917 1836 1765 1684 1603 1493 1403 1317 LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.3 30.6 30.9 31.1 31.7 32.3 32.8 33.4 34.0 34.9 35.6 36.3 LONG(DEG W) 41.4 41.2 41.0 41.2 41.4 42.1 42.6 43.1 43.6 44.1 44.6 45.1 45.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 6 6 7 5 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -23. -32. -40. -46. -49. -52. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -1. 0. 3. 7. 11. 14. 16. 16. 14. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 4. 2. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. -9. -20. -30. -41. -54. -63. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132012 MICHAEL 09/06/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132012 MICHAEL 09/06/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 25( 42) 22( 54) 20( 63) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)