* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/06/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 69 72 75 78 83 79 82 84 81 78 75 V (KT) LAND 65 67 69 72 75 78 83 79 82 84 81 78 75 V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 67 68 69 72 74 76 78 80 82 83 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 14 20 9 4 1 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 1 13 10 9 12 7 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 235 239 253 181 203 20 226 185 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.5 27.9 27.2 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 158 158 159 160 155 153 148 144 136 128 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 130 131 132 132 135 132 129 126 121 115 109 91 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.0 -50.5 -50.2 -48.9 -48.3 -46.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 52 52 52 52 49 48 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 28 30 30 33 34 34 37 35 38 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 2 8 28 42 36 54 52 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 57 42 47 42 21 79 22 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 2 5 6 6 3 7 2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 970 980 991 1007 1024 1076 1203 1364 1272 1090 904 729 499 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.7 28.9 30.4 32.2 34.1 36.1 38.6 41.5 LONG(DEG W) 62.2 62.2 62.2 62.3 62.4 62.7 62.7 62.6 62.4 61.9 61.1 59.7 57.7 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 2 3 5 7 8 10 10 12 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 47 45 44 41 38 33 30 24 27 19 19 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 5. 8. 11. 10. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 18. 14. 17. 19. 16. 13. 10. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/06/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/06/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 5( 10) 6( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 4( 5) 7( 12) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)