* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL132012 09/06/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 94 93 91 89 87 82 75 68 64 62 60 V (KT) LAND 95 95 94 93 91 89 87 82 75 68 64 62 60 V (KT) LGE mod 95 93 91 88 86 83 81 80 78 74 69 65 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 4 5 5 2 7 4 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 3 3 4 -2 -4 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 215 137 79 36 309 254 297 284 341 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 135 134 133 130 130 128 126 125 123 121 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 110 110 110 109 107 106 104 103 103 101 100 96 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -53.8 -53.5 -51.9 -51.7 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 38 39 40 42 46 44 43 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 16 17 14 15 18 19 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -1 -4 -5 -12 -16 -34 -37 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -18 -6 -9 -9 -12 -29 -1 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 1 -1 0 0 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2090 2062 2035 1992 1948 1844 1777 1706 1624 1505 1352 1180 995 LAT (DEG N) 30.4 30.7 30.9 31.3 31.6 32.3 32.6 33.1 33.8 34.7 35.8 37.2 38.9 LONG(DEG W) 41.1 41.2 41.2 41.4 41.6 42.4 43.3 43.8 44.1 44.8 45.9 46.7 47.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 4 5 4 3 4 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 9 8 9 7 9 8 7 5 0 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -8. -14. -21. -29. -35. -41. -44. -46. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 15. 17. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -20. -27. -31. -33. -35. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132012 MICHAEL 09/06/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132012 MICHAEL 09/06/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 16( 30) 12( 39) 11( 45) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)