* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/07/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 69 73 76 78 82 81 84 81 77 74 65 V (KT) LAND 65 67 69 73 76 78 82 81 84 81 77 74 65 V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 67 68 70 72 75 76 77 80 81 80 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 20 11 2 2 7 1 8 4 6 15 25 77 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 9 12 10 12 18 3 1 0 -3 -3 -10 SHEAR DIR 243 254 268 310 139 319 172 302 182 310 269 227 199 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.3 27.9 26.7 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 158 158 158 160 156 151 147 141 137 124 94 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 130 132 132 132 135 134 129 124 119 117 108 84 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -50.7 -50.9 -50.1 -49.1 -48.4 -46.8 -47.0 -46.4 -46.3 -46.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 8 6 3 0 700-500 MB RH 52 54 54 53 53 51 49 48 52 52 47 48 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 30 32 34 34 33 38 37 41 38 38 39 40 850 MB ENV VOR -1 7 25 36 36 42 48 53 86 104 133 229 181 200 MB DIV 49 32 22 50 26 21 22 46 58 14 67 46 59 700-850 TADV 2 5 8 7 4 5 3 3 -3 3 -1 2 -87 LAND (KM) 970 978 987 1008 1031 1093 1238 1347 1219 1058 958 717 376 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 26.6 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.8 29.2 31.1 32.9 34.7 36.4 39.5 43.4 LONG(DEG W) 62.2 62.3 62.3 62.4 62.5 62.5 62.6 62.4 61.9 60.8 59.1 57.1 54.8 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 3 3 5 9 9 10 11 14 19 21 HEAT CONTENT 47 45 44 40 36 34 29 25 27 5 14 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 13. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -23. -27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 7. 7. 10. 7. 6. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 13. 17. 16. 19. 16. 12. 9. 0. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/07/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/07/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 5( 10) 6( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 10( 11) 6( 16) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)