* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL132012 09/07/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 88 86 86 85 84 78 77 71 62 56 42 35 V (KT) LAND 90 88 86 86 85 84 78 77 71 62 56 42 35 V (KT) LGE mod 90 86 83 80 79 78 77 78 75 72 66 58 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 7 3 5 8 5 2 5 12 34 36 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 3 4 0 -5 -5 3 2 1 2 0 4 SHEAR DIR 105 40 28 40 217 196 171 300 337 59 357 13 342 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.3 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 134 132 132 130 128 126 126 124 121 116 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 110 109 108 108 106 105 103 103 103 101 96 88 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.9 -54.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.0 -51.7 -51.0 -49.2 -47.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 4 700-500 MB RH 37 40 40 39 42 43 42 39 37 33 32 44 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 18 17 18 17 19 16 20 20 18 20 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -1 -6 -14 -1 -21 -29 -34 -34 -49 -63 -12 109 200 MB DIV -10 1 -8 -19 -19 -4 -7 -21 -44 -14 -26 -5 69 700-850 TADV 3 4 1 -3 0 -1 -3 -2 -1 -6 -10 15 87 LAND (KM) 2083 2049 2014 1976 1938 1853 1776 1695 1604 1457 1249 1038 858 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 30.9 31.2 31.5 31.7 32.3 32.9 33.5 34.2 35.3 36.9 38.8 40.8 LONG(DEG W) 40.8 40.9 41.0 41.3 41.6 42.2 42.6 43.1 43.6 44.5 45.7 46.3 46.2 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 8 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 9 8 8 6 5 4 5 4 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -7. -12. -18. -25. -31. -36. -39. -41. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 14. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. -1. 2. 2. 0. 1. -4. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -12. -13. -19. -28. -34. -48. -55. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132012 MICHAEL 09/07/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132012 MICHAEL 09/07/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 10( 21) 10( 29) 9( 35) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)