* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/07/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 68 71 73 76 77 85 86 86 82 79 70 V (KT) LAND 65 66 68 71 73 76 77 85 86 86 82 79 70 V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 67 68 69 71 73 75 77 81 84 80 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 14 7 4 3 4 6 5 9 6 15 36 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 8 12 12 12 8 0 -5 1 -2 10 3 SHEAR DIR 248 265 251 268 263 95 153 244 225 209 225 188 199 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.5 25.6 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 158 158 159 157 153 150 144 137 132 113 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 131 131 132 134 134 131 128 122 116 111 98 76 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.2 -50.9 -49.7 -48.6 -47.6 -46.9 -46.0 -46.4 -45.0 -43.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 8 8 5 2 0 700-500 MB RH 53 53 53 52 50 51 49 50 55 56 53 47 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 30 32 34 34 34 34 40 40 40 38 43 47 850 MB ENV VOR 7 22 36 36 33 46 39 80 96 131 219 266 255 200 MB DIV 37 29 64 48 30 45 59 100 -16 86 50 85 43 700-850 TADV 5 6 5 6 7 10 0 0 3 11 -13 -52 4 LAND (KM) 980 994 1007 1029 1051 1163 1326 1325 1135 979 838 607 228 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.4 28.5 30.0 31.9 33.9 35.9 38.0 41.0 44.7 LONG(DEG W) 62.2 62.3 62.3 62.4 62.5 62.6 62.5 61.9 61.0 59.7 58.2 56.4 54.4 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 3 4 6 9 10 11 12 14 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 39 36 33 29 27 30 28 31 16 7 9 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 11. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -24. -29. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 9. 9. 9. 7. 10. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 20. 21. 21. 17. 14. 5. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/07/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/07/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 5( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)