* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL132012 09/07/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 88 87 86 85 84 81 75 66 56 45 64 60 V (KT) LAND 90 88 87 86 85 84 81 75 66 56 45 64 60 V (KT) LGE mod 90 87 84 82 80 79 79 77 73 67 61 54 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 7 10 7 4 3 19 23 27 41 16 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 0 -7 5 1 4 20 SHEAR DIR 28 13 344 307 272 212 320 315 347 349 10 37 162 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.8 25.1 18.5 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 133 132 131 129 128 125 125 123 123 109 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 109 109 108 108 105 104 103 102 102 104 95 74 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.1 -54.7 -54.3 -53.9 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -51.1 -50.4 -48.3 -45.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 8 5 0 700-500 MB RH 42 41 42 45 46 42 40 37 34 40 48 58 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 15 16 17 18 19 20 20 17 15 43 47 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -12 -19 -14 -28 -37 -42 -55 -54 -67 23 139 197 200 MB DIV 0 -5 -18 -29 -17 -2 -32 -50 -14 -7 -27 76 9 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 1 0 0 -2 -4 0 0 41 7 -2 LAND (KM) 2053 2019 1986 1948 1910 1818 1727 1614 1517 1367 1178 836 514 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.2 31.4 31.7 31.9 32.6 33.3 34.1 34.7 35.8 37.3 40.6 45.2 LONG(DEG W) 40.8 41.0 41.2 41.5 41.8 42.3 42.8 43.6 44.5 45.5 46.5 47.0 46.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 6 8 12 19 23 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 7 7 6 3 6 8 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -12. -19. -26. -31. -36. -39. -41. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -3. 22. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -15. -24. -34. -45. -26. -30. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132012 MICHAEL 09/07/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132012 MICHAEL 09/07/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 10( 21) 10( 29) 9( 35) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)