* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/07/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 68 71 72 79 79 83 84 81 75 71 60 V (KT) LAND 65 66 68 71 72 79 79 83 84 81 75 71 57 V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 67 68 70 72 74 76 79 81 79 68 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 8 5 5 6 2 6 10 8 22 36 71 77 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 11 9 6 9 5 -3 -1 -3 0 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 271 258 243 191 206 86 199 224 273 258 225 192 182 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.8 26.4 21.9 16.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 159 159 158 154 150 147 142 136 121 90 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 133 134 134 131 127 124 121 116 104 81 70 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -50.4 -49.4 -47.7 -47.2 -47.5 -47.0 -47.3 -46.5 -44.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 8 7 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 53 53 50 49 48 48 46 54 54 57 50 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 31 33 34 32 38 36 40 40 38 37 44 46 850 MB ENV VOR 15 27 32 29 32 44 54 75 109 143 241 222 170 200 MB DIV 18 45 39 26 35 26 62 40 76 50 71 31 51 700-850 TADV 7 4 5 6 5 3 0 0 2 1 -16 -99 -100 LAND (KM) 991 1014 1038 1079 1121 1260 1396 1241 1086 904 666 322 13 LAT (DEG N) 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.6 28.0 29.3 31.0 32.8 34.6 37.1 40.1 43.9 48.0 LONG(DEG W) 62.2 62.3 62.3 62.3 62.3 62.2 61.9 61.4 60.3 58.9 56.9 55.2 53.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 4 5 8 9 10 12 15 18 21 21 HEAT CONTENT 29 25 20 18 20 26 31 41 4 11 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 11. 9. 3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. -20. -24. -28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 6. 5. 8. 9. 7. 5. 11. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 7. 14. 14. 18. 19. 16. 10. 6. -5. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/07/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/07/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 7( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)