* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL132012 09/07/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 89 88 88 86 85 77 71 61 47 66 63 V (KT) LAND 90 90 89 88 88 86 85 77 71 61 47 66 63 V (KT) LGE mod 90 88 87 85 84 82 81 79 74 69 62 53 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 7 8 5 5 5 15 20 32 40 6 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -3 -1 -2 0 -1 -3 0 0 18 13 SHEAR DIR 16 288 296 292 257 193 291 337 337 359 354 115 181 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 26.9 26.1 21.4 15.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 132 132 131 129 127 127 127 124 117 88 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 108 108 107 108 105 104 105 106 105 101 79 69 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -54.8 -54.2 -53.8 -53.7 -52.2 -52.4 -51.5 -51.5 -50.7 -49.7 -48.1 -45.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 5 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 42 46 47 44 41 38 37 37 41 52 71 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 16 16 16 17 19 19 21 20 15 44 46 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -20 -14 -28 -28 -44 -46 -35 -48 -49 51 162 169 200 MB DIV 4 -17 -41 -19 -4 -18 -6 -38 -16 -21 22 46 70 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 1 19 -72 -182 LAND (KM) 2024 1996 1967 1936 1905 1806 1730 1628 1494 1263 954 605 457 LAT (DEG N) 31.1 31.3 31.5 31.7 31.9 32.6 33.1 33.8 34.7 36.6 39.4 43.2 47.5 LONG(DEG W) 41.0 41.2 41.4 41.7 41.9 42.6 43.2 44.0 45.1 46.1 46.9 47.2 46.7 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 6 8 12 17 20 21 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 3 5 5 6 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -12. -19. -26. -31. -36. -39. -42. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 3. -2. 24. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -13. -19. -29. -43. -24. -27. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132012 MICHAEL 09/07/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132012 MICHAEL 09/07/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 11( 22) 11( 30) 10( 37) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)