* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/07/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 55 56 60 63 68 73 75 77 75 69 52 V (KT) LAND 55 54 55 56 60 63 68 73 75 77 75 69 52 V (KT) LGE mod 55 53 53 54 55 59 62 65 69 74 74 62 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 5 8 7 2 7 6 4 7 26 50 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 5 3 6 10 1 0 3 5 9 8 0 SHEAR DIR 245 224 208 192 95 269 129 281 284 227 179 191 188 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.3 27.7 25.1 20.6 17.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 158 156 155 152 148 146 142 136 109 83 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 134 133 131 130 128 124 121 121 119 96 74 67 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -50.9 -50.1 -49.2 -47.5 -48.3 -47.3 -47.1 -46.2 -45.4 -45.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 52 50 50 50 48 48 48 57 51 57 51 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 31 32 32 31 34 34 37 40 40 39 41 45 39 850 MB ENV VOR 25 27 25 27 28 27 59 67 115 192 242 216 135 200 MB DIV 55 49 26 26 77 0 85 29 86 49 116 113 43 700-850 TADV 3 2 3 5 3 1 0 4 17 2 -43 -41 -32 LAND (KM) 1042 1085 1128 1173 1218 1351 1355 1228 1093 910 589 222 8 LAT (DEG N) 27.2 27.6 28.0 28.5 28.9 30.1 31.7 33.0 34.6 37.3 41.5 44.7 47.0 LONG(DEG W) 62.2 62.2 62.1 62.2 62.2 62.0 61.6 61.1 60.1 58.3 55.5 53.9 52.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 7 8 8 12 19 20 15 12 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 22 24 26 27 35 37 3 8 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 16. 15. 10. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -20. -24. -29. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 6. 6. 7. 10. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 5. 8. 13. 18. 20. 22. 20. 14. -3. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/07/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/07/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)