* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL132012 09/07/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 89 89 87 89 83 75 66 52 54 63 51 V (KT) LAND 90 90 89 89 87 89 83 75 66 52 54 63 51 V (KT) LGE mod 90 88 87 85 84 82 81 78 73 67 59 48 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 4 4 7 6 9 11 19 35 25 18 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 3 -2 1 -1 -3 3 -3 5 -2 4 11 15 SHEAR DIR 315 296 295 264 193 265 340 11 11 6 64 134 202 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.7 24.1 17.3 15.7 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 132 131 130 127 126 126 125 123 102 77 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 108 108 107 106 104 103 104 105 105 90 72 70 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.5 -54.0 -53.8 -53.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -51.0 -48.8 -47.1 -46.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 6 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 45 47 42 41 39 36 35 32 38 50 60 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 15 15 14 20 19 18 19 15 26 45 39 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -17 -25 -35 -37 -46 -40 -37 -62 -15 114 177 108 200 MB DIV -19 -43 -24 -5 3 -3 -25 -44 -34 -30 76 96 29 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 0 -5 3 -6 0 -8 24 -34 -68 -142 LAND (KM) 1996 1965 1934 1895 1857 1762 1686 1579 1421 1128 749 489 631 LAT (DEG N) 31.3 31.5 31.7 32.0 32.3 33.0 33.5 34.2 35.3 37.8 41.4 46.0 50.8 LONG(DEG W) 41.2 41.5 41.7 41.9 42.1 42.7 43.3 44.2 45.4 46.5 47.3 46.8 44.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 6 10 15 21 24 25 HEAT CONTENT 2 4 5 5 5 5 3 5 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -13. -19. -26. -32. -36. -40. -44. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 9. 7. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -4. 6. 23. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -3. -1. -7. -15. -24. -38. -36. -27. -39. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132012 MICHAEL 09/07/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132012 MICHAEL 09/07/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 11( 22) 10( 30) 11( 37) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)