* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/08/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 59 62 67 73 71 77 80 78 63 44 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 59 62 67 73 71 77 80 78 63 44 V (KT) LGE mod 55 54 55 56 58 61 64 69 74 78 72 56 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 3 5 9 4 4 6 8 21 44 61 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 9 13 6 4 -1 -4 0 9 15 0 2 SHEAR DIR 213 235 248 99 109 268 268 301 265 222 206 195 198 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.0 27.1 23.9 19.0 16.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 157 156 155 151 148 144 138 128 100 78 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 131 132 131 132 127 124 122 118 111 88 71 66 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -50.2 -50.0 -49.1 -48.4 -47.9 -47.3 -47.0 -46.0 -45.7 -45.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 8 5 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 50 49 51 50 47 50 55 53 50 51 46 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 31 30 30 34 35 37 40 35 38 41 46 43 37 850 MB ENV VOR 29 26 29 35 36 45 61 87 142 228 193 181 87 200 MB DIV 35 19 32 57 37 39 78 -3 53 84 127 40 36 700-850 TADV 5 6 5 8 0 1 0 4 7 7 -12 -43 -27 LAND (KM) 1058 1095 1131 1185 1239 1405 1306 1155 997 777 463 124 112 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.6 29.1 30.8 32.2 33.8 35.9 38.8 42.6 45.6 47.8 LONG(DEG W) 62.3 62.3 62.3 62.3 62.2 61.9 61.4 60.7 59.3 57.4 54.8 52.8 51.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 7 8 8 11 14 19 19 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 21 24 26 30 39 13 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 11. 5. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -21. -25. -29. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 2. 5. 8. 12. 8. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 7. 12. 18. 16. 22. 25. 23. 8. -11. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/08/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/08/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)