* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL132012 09/08/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 83 83 84 84 78 71 60 46 57 59 42 V (KT) LAND 85 84 83 83 84 84 78 71 60 46 57 59 42 V (KT) LGE mod 85 83 81 80 80 79 77 73 67 60 51 42 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 5 4 3 7 11 19 32 40 15 51 94 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -2 -1 -1 0 0 4 2 3 0 22 8 -15 SHEAR DIR 310 294 240 177 151 311 358 27 7 3 197 234 249 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.3 26.9 25.8 19.4 15.7 11.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 131 129 129 126 126 127 125 115 82 75 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 107 106 105 105 102 103 106 107 101 76 72 69 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -54.1 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -51.4 -49.5 -47.4 -47.5 -45.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 5 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 46 42 42 41 37 34 34 33 38 41 41 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 13 16 18 17 18 18 12 31 43 36 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -25 -32 -38 -45 -50 -41 -46 -52 59 131 71 3 200 MB DIV -44 -12 6 -9 -19 -12 -79 -18 -28 51 102 8 -9 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -2 -1 -3 -1 -2 -15 23 -28 -15 -74 LAND (KM) 1948 1917 1887 1850 1814 1713 1662 1523 1276 899 511 565 972 LAT (DEG N) 31.6 31.8 32.0 32.3 32.6 33.4 33.7 34.6 36.4 39.8 44.4 49.7 55.0 LONG(DEG W) 41.6 41.9 42.1 42.3 42.4 42.9 43.4 44.6 46.3 47.3 47.4 45.4 41.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 9 14 20 25 28 29 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -11. -17. -23. -27. -31. -35. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 9. 8. 6. 6. 4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 1. 3. 2. 3. 2. -4. 14. 24. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -7. -14. -25. -39. -28. -26. -43. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132012 MICHAEL 09/08/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132012 MICHAEL 09/08/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 9( 18) 9( 25) 9( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)