* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/08/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 64 65 70 79 82 82 78 72 57 38 V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 64 65 70 79 82 82 78 72 57 38 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 58 60 62 65 69 74 80 76 62 47 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 4 7 5 8 11 6 14 40 49 60 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 8 14 6 9 1 -5 -4 6 15 5 5 5 SHEAR DIR 236 245 121 121 191 176 252 225 229 210 205 204 222 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.0 27.3 25.2 20.6 17.1 14.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 155 154 152 148 144 138 130 109 83 72 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 132 131 130 129 125 122 117 111 94 74 67 64 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -50.3 -49.9 -49.9 -48.7 -48.6 -47.3 -47.5 -46.3 -46.7 -46.7 -46.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 8 7 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 48 50 49 45 46 50 51 50 54 57 42 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 29 33 34 32 34 40 40 39 40 43 40 33 850 MB ENV VOR 19 24 34 32 25 53 52 100 188 192 151 119 29 200 MB DIV 17 39 65 51 23 36 26 32 48 154 94 43 22 700-850 TADV 3 4 5 1 3 -4 -3 11 0 5 -71 -43 -10 LAND (KM) 1100 1159 1218 1295 1372 1333 1162 989 800 590 222 43 121 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.4 28.9 29.6 30.3 31.9 33.7 35.8 38.4 41.4 44.7 47.1 48.9 LONG(DEG W) 62.3 62.3 62.2 62.1 62.0 61.6 60.8 59.7 58.0 56.1 53.8 52.4 51.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 7 8 9 11 13 16 18 16 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 15 20 24 26 27 36 17 9 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 9. 5. 0. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -21. -25. -28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 8. 8. 7. 8. 10. 7. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 10. 15. 24. 27. 27. 23. 17. 2. -17. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/08/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/08/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 4( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)