* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL132012 09/08/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 83 82 83 82 78 67 53 56 67 52 35 V (KT) LAND 85 83 83 82 83 82 78 67 53 56 67 52 35 V (KT) LGE mod 85 83 81 79 78 76 75 71 64 56 47 39 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 7 7 2 8 14 21 26 11 32 72 86 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 1 -1 -1 4 5 9 6 12 13 5 -14 SHEAR DIR 266 233 203 213 291 308 7 5 10 25 239 251 264 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 26.9 24.3 16.7 16.3 13.5 POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 128 127 126 125 126 126 125 105 76 74 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 106 104 104 102 102 104 106 107 94 71 69 67 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.0 -53.4 -52.7 -52.3 -53.1 -53.1 -51.8 -50.9 -48.9 -47.7 -47.3 -47.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 7 6 4 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 42 43 42 42 34 31 28 30 33 44 45 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 14 16 18 19 17 13 25 43 40 33 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -40 -45 -52 -58 -55 -40 -58 -40 59 68 -57 -18 200 MB DIV -20 -4 -13 -27 -14 -30 -46 -38 -27 87 35 23 -18 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 -4 1 -8 9 -5 21 1 -38 LAND (KM) 1900 1859 1817 1777 1736 1665 1579 1424 1159 763 507 698 1143 LAT (DEG N) 32.0 32.4 32.7 33.0 33.3 33.8 34.2 35.2 37.3 41.3 46.8 50.6 52.8 LONG(DEG W) 41.8 42.0 42.1 42.4 42.6 43.1 44.2 45.6 47.0 47.2 46.2 43.8 38.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 4 4 4 6 10 15 24 24 20 21 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 2 2 2 3 6 3 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -17. -23. -28. -32. -36. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 3. -1. 10. 26. 22. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -7. -18. -32. -29. -18. -33. -50. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132012 MICHAEL 09/08/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132012 MICHAEL 09/08/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 9( 18) 9( 25) 8( 31) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)