* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/08/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 63 68 73 75 78 79 77 59 36 21 V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 63 68 73 75 78 79 77 59 36 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 57 59 61 65 70 76 77 66 50 35 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 7 3 10 7 7 12 35 55 71 63 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 9 5 10 2 1 -2 1 4 13 -1 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 276 105 109 165 202 255 278 211 209 204 198 203 199 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.4 27.8 26.4 23.1 19.2 17.2 15.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 154 152 149 146 143 136 120 94 77 71 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 131 131 129 126 123 121 116 102 82 70 65 63 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -50.9 -50.5 -50.3 -49.7 -49.1 -49.1 -47.5 -47.1 -45.8 -45.3 -45.7 -47.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 11 10 11 9 9 4 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 49 50 47 46 47 53 44 45 45 35 28 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 31 33 33 38 38 35 36 39 45 40 31 25 850 MB ENV VOR 17 24 24 17 32 52 89 153 205 174 157 85 51 200 MB DIV 34 55 43 29 64 -6 28 53 86 118 16 3 16 700-850 TADV 4 3 0 0 -1 2 7 -1 -3 -16 -31 -27 -9 LAND (KM) 1145 1210 1275 1361 1387 1247 1079 892 637 431 123 -16 43 LAT (DEG N) 28.3 28.9 29.5 30.3 31.0 32.7 34.5 36.9 40.0 43.0 45.7 47.5 48.4 LONG(DEG W) 62.5 62.5 62.4 62.2 62.0 61.6 60.8 59.5 57.9 56.4 55.1 53.8 52.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 9 11 15 16 15 12 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 24 25 27 29 39 8 12 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 0. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 10. 6. 0. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -22. -26. -30. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 5. 6. 5. 5. 8. 13. 8. -1. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 18. 20. 23. 24. 22. 4. -19. -34. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/08/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/08/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)