* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL132012 09/08/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 89 88 88 83 75 64 46 73 59 38 26 V (KT) LAND 90 90 89 88 88 83 75 64 46 73 59 38 26 V (KT) LGE mod 90 90 88 86 83 80 76 70 62 54 45 40 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 5 0 5 10 19 32 34 9 36 68 71 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 2 0 3 1 7 1 8 13 3 -5 SHEAR DIR 214 188 187 144 333 25 42 14 12 73 217 233 248 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.1 26.7 22.8 15.5 15.4 13.2 POT. INT. (KT) 130 128 128 127 127 127 128 126 123 95 74 72 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 104 104 103 103 104 106 106 106 86 70 68 67 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.2 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -51.4 -50.0 -47.6 -46.6 -45.7 -47.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 6 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 43 41 39 35 31 31 29 35 39 50 40 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 15 15 15 17 17 16 16 9 45 40 30 25 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -46 -50 -55 -53 -37 -43 -52 23 130 133 67 -8 200 MB DIV 0 -10 -13 -7 -34 -33 -40 -38 5 58 33 11 -4 700-850 TADV 1 -6 -2 0 -2 -1 -7 -4 15 9 -9 -83 -42 LAND (KM) 1861 1828 1794 1764 1733 1654 1544 1351 1060 658 434 662 1082 LAT (DEG N) 32.3 32.6 32.8 33.0 33.2 33.7 34.2 35.6 38.1 42.2 47.6 51.3 53.3 LONG(DEG W) 42.0 42.2 42.4 42.7 42.9 43.6 45.1 46.5 47.5 47.7 47.0 44.7 39.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 4 5 7 11 17 24 24 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 3 2 3 5 6 1 17 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -20. -27. -32. -38. -43. -47. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 5. 6. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -2. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -5. 29. 23. 13. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -2. -7. -15. -26. -44. -17. -31. -52. -64. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132012 MICHAEL 09/08/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 50.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132012 MICHAEL 09/08/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 11( 22) 11( 30) 9( 37) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)