* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/08/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 58 63 65 72 78 76 75 66 48 30 17 V (KT) LAND 55 56 58 63 65 72 78 76 75 66 48 30 17 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 57 59 61 67 74 80 74 57 43 35 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 6 6 8 4 9 21 45 65 61 48 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 6 1 -4 0 0 5 16 4 -2 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 53 53 161 218 197 255 234 199 196 197 199 208 206 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.0 27.0 23.9 20.7 19.4 17.5 15.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 153 150 148 145 138 127 99 81 76 72 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 130 130 127 125 122 118 109 86 72 68 66 65 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.6 -50.5 -50.2 -49.5 -49.5 -48.1 -47.9 -46.8 -46.4 -46.1 -47.1 -49.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 6 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 49 47 48 46 51 49 43 43 47 36 33 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 30 30 35 34 36 37 34 38 40 35 29 23 850 MB ENV VOR 24 18 15 29 40 57 122 180 164 162 105 45 14 200 MB DIV 29 6 29 52 61 15 82 25 135 66 37 9 13 700-850 TADV 2 1 2 -1 -1 5 13 -24 -12 -32 -40 -18 -17 LAND (KM) 1219 1297 1374 1365 1294 1145 964 729 460 245 138 69 246 LAT (DEG N) 29.0 29.7 30.4 31.3 32.2 33.7 35.8 38.9 42.3 44.6 45.5 46.6 47.7 LONG(DEG W) 62.5 62.4 62.3 62.1 61.9 61.4 60.3 58.7 57.1 55.6 54.2 52.2 49.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 10 14 17 16 10 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 27 30 35 27 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 8. 3. -3. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -18. -22. -25. -28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 5. 2. 6. 8. 2. -4. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 8. 10. 17. 23. 21. 20. 11. -7. -25. -38. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/08/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/08/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 4( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)