* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL132012 09/08/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 87 86 84 78 67 50 54 60 42 25 DIS V (KT) LAND 90 89 87 86 84 78 67 50 54 60 42 25 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 89 87 84 82 78 73 67 59 49 41 38 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 2 5 9 19 24 39 11 25 80 76 68 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 1 -2 3 5 0 16 0 -2 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 158 173 45 318 345 37 22 23 79 176 214 231 258 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.0 25.1 17.6 15.0 11.8 12.9 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 125 126 126 127 129 127 110 78 73 69 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 102 101 102 102 104 108 110 97 73 70 67 67 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.6 -52.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -52.4 -50.9 -48.9 -47.2 -46.4 -46.3 -46.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 6 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 40 40 35 33 31 31 32 39 54 45 40 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 13 16 16 17 15 11 26 40 34 28 22 850 MB ENV VOR -52 -55 -58 -58 -51 -43 -66 -34 101 108 88 48 6 200 MB DIV -9 -6 -5 -25 -43 -56 -77 -29 84 37 29 -5 -34 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 -3 -1 -1 -13 13 12 -32 -163 -94 -12 LAND (KM) 1793 1764 1735 1705 1675 1620 1513 1224 782 404 555 895 1368 LAT (DEG N) 32.9 33.2 33.4 33.6 33.7 33.8 34.3 36.6 40.5 45.4 50.7 54.4 56.0 LONG(DEG W) 42.2 42.3 42.4 42.8 43.1 44.2 45.7 47.2 48.5 48.2 46.0 42.4 35.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 4 6 9 16 22 26 24 21 22 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 2 2 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -15. -21. -27. -32. -39. -44. -48. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 1. 3. -1. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. 8. 22. 15. 9. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -12. -23. -40. -36. -30. -48. -65. -77. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132012 MICHAEL 09/08/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 48.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132012 MICHAEL 09/08/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 10( 21) 9( 28) 6( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)