* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/09/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 58 61 65 68 69 72 58 40 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 56 58 61 65 68 69 72 58 38 23 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 57 59 61 66 71 71 57 39 33 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 7 5 9 3 8 40 70 77 67 51 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 3 3 -6 0 4 16 7 2 6 4 1 SHEAR DIR 70 163 202 168 113 360 185 220 209 204 213 210 202 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.3 27.6 24.5 19.2 17.6 18.9 16.7 16.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 150 149 147 141 135 105 78 72 75 74 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 128 128 127 123 119 117 93 71 66 68 69 70 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.7 -50.4 -50.0 -49.6 -49.7 -48.8 -47.7 -46.2 -46.5 -48.6 -50.0 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 47 47 44 45 52 41 37 34 28 28 25 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 29 32 33 35 34 32 37 34 28 23 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 6 3 19 28 37 106 154 207 175 152 20 -48 -96 200 MB DIV 11 -1 21 46 58 30 48 101 35 21 -23 -20 -11 700-850 TADV 1 3 3 3 -12 16 6 27 26 -24 -38 -27 9 LAND (KM) 1291 1370 1356 1292 1186 1042 817 475 123 -11 257 396 654 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 30.4 31.1 32.2 33.2 34.7 37.5 41.7 45.7 46.9 44.9 46.1 49.9 LONG(DEG W) 62.6 62.5 62.3 62.1 61.9 61.3 59.9 57.8 55.5 53.2 51.0 48.0 44.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 9 11 9 11 19 22 15 8 9 17 23 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 29 33 37 14 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 10. 4. -3. -10. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -21. -23. -24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 6. 3. -3. -8. -20. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 14. 17. 3. -15. -34. -57. -64. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/09/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/09/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 3( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)