* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL132012 09/09/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 82 80 75 67 57 42 27 39 25 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 83 82 80 75 67 57 42 27 39 25 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 82 80 78 77 73 67 60 52 43 37 35 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 5 6 14 23 26 38 17 44 61 68 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 4 2 11 0 7 17 7 -5 3 SHEAR DIR 246 308 230 13 22 35 23 22 62 192 200 213 234 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.2 26.6 20.7 15.7 15.4 13.1 14.7 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 124 125 125 127 128 124 86 74 73 70 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 101 100 102 102 105 109 109 79 70 70 68 69 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -52.3 -51.3 -49.0 -47.7 -47.3 -47.3 -47.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 7 7 8 7 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 40 39 37 33 31 32 30 33 27 37 39 33 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 15 16 17 15 16 15 10 6 29 23 10 6 850 MB ENV VOR -58 -55 -51 -53 -41 -48 -64 -17 166 131 118 110 55 200 MB DIV 0 5 -8 -48 -41 -37 -36 -27 19 36 29 -8 -27 700-850 TADV -3 0 -2 -2 0 -3 -10 2 -29 -26 -182 -69 -84 LAND (KM) 1749 1723 1697 1667 1638 1580 1399 1012 525 508 918 1344 1173 LAT (DEG N) 33.3 33.5 33.7 33.8 33.9 34.0 35.2 38.5 43.4 48.0 51.6 54.6 56.1 LONG(DEG W) 42.3 42.5 42.6 43.1 43.5 44.7 46.3 47.7 48.3 46.0 41.0 35.5 28.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 4 4 7 13 21 24 24 23 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 2 2 5 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -18. -23. -29. -36. -40. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -3. -7. -12. 10. 4. -9. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -9. -18. -28. -43. -58. -46. -60. -79. -86. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132012 MICHAEL 09/09/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 46.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132012 MICHAEL 09/09/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 8( 17) 5( 21) 3( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)