* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/09/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 53 56 58 64 70 65 49 34 24 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 50 53 56 58 64 70 65 45 35 25 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 49 50 52 55 62 68 61 42 34 25 22 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 5 3 3 4 30 66 85 73 56 29 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 -1 1 -3 -1 0 16 17 6 6 -4 -6 4 SHEAR DIR 157 211 198 145 298 263 224 216 212 216 215 220 259 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 27.8 25.7 21.0 17.0 14.6 14.8 16.8 13.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 148 147 145 137 115 86 73 68 69 74 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 127 125 125 123 119 100 77 68 65 65 68 67 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.5 -50.1 -49.9 -50.0 -49.3 -48.4 -47.1 -46.0 -46.6 -48.9 -51.9 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 49 47 45 51 46 39 38 31 27 24 32 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 30 32 33 30 31 36 37 32 31 33 30 20 850 MB ENV VOR -3 12 25 35 63 121 192 200 170 36 -96 -107 -44 200 MB DIV -15 3 49 51 36 57 74 70 23 3 -21 -10 26 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 -7 1 11 14 49 -19 -56 -27 -2 -8 LAND (KM) 1359 1332 1277 1186 1089 879 563 270 -15 215 449 762 1141 LAT (DEG N) 30.5 31.4 32.2 33.2 34.2 36.7 40.6 44.4 47.4 48.9 49.1 50.4 52.7 LONG(DEG W) 62.6 62.5 62.3 61.9 61.5 60.2 58.3 55.9 53.1 50.1 46.9 42.8 38.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 11 12 17 21 19 15 11 12 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 26 28 30 33 17 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 6. -2. -10. -15. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. -23. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 2. 3. 7. 8. 3. 2. 4. 0. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. 5. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 3. 6. 8. 14. 20. 15. -1. -16. -26. -36. -47. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/09/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/09/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)