* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL132012 09/09/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 80 77 73 64 50 35 41 34 26 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 85 83 80 77 73 64 50 35 41 34 26 15 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 82 79 76 74 70 63 55 47 39 33 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 5 12 21 21 31 30 20 60 68 50 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 8 2 8 5 2 19 19 0 -6 2 SHEAR DIR 331 315 347 14 37 10 24 32 211 215 211 224 254 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.0 25.9 20.2 17.2 17.0 14.9 15.3 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 125 127 127 128 125 116 83 75 75 72 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 100 101 104 104 107 107 102 76 70 70 69 70 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -52.4 -51.7 -50.6 -49.5 -48.3 -48.3 -49.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 6 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 38 35 34 29 32 32 34 33 36 37 35 38 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 13 15 16 15 13 8 25 31 34 30 20 850 MB ENV VOR -60 -59 -62 -56 -46 -76 -75 -38 91 51 -75 -52 -120 200 MB DIV -5 -3 -36 -38 -39 -45 -54 -6 13 4 -13 -31 5 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -3 -1 -11 7 3 23 -47 -58 -42 -23 LAND (KM) 1692 1669 1647 1617 1588 1485 1249 900 579 628 961 1409 1082 LAT (DEG N) 33.7 33.8 33.9 34.0 34.0 34.5 36.3 39.7 44.3 47.6 49.9 51.7 52.4 LONG(DEG W) 42.7 43.0 43.3 43.9 44.5 45.9 47.4 47.5 46.5 44.4 39.9 33.8 26.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 5 6 8 13 20 21 18 20 22 23 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 2 3 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 793 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -17. -23. -30. -36. -41. -45. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. 1. -1. -6. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 1. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. 7. 12. 15. 10. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -12. -21. -35. -50. -44. -51. -59. -70. -79. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132012 MICHAEL 09/09/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 46.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132012 MICHAEL 09/09/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 7( 16) 4( 20) 0( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)