* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/09/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 57 59 68 71 59 45 31 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 57 59 68 71 57 43 29 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 51 54 58 65 63 48 36 29 28 30 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 3 4 4 20 69 84 64 52 38 28 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 -4 -3 12 14 1 1 1 -2 1 4 SHEAR DIR 240 242 144 228 239 206 217 217 217 228 239 253 269 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.0 26.5 20.6 14.7 12.5 10.9 12.8 12.8 12.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 147 143 139 123 87 74 72 70 71 71 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 126 125 122 121 110 80 71 69 68 69 68 68 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.1 -50.2 -50.4 -50.3 -49.1 -47.5 -45.2 -44.6 -44.8 -45.7 -46.9 -48.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 46 46 51 55 40 36 35 41 47 47 56 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 32 30 32 30 36 43 40 38 33 27 22 16 850 MB ENV VOR 11 24 31 58 99 147 150 145 121 98 115 101 153 200 MB DIV 0 51 36 24 47 72 78 32 14 -1 -9 -1 -11 700-850 TADV 0 2 -9 1 9 -4 29 -43 -49 -20 -12 5 -22 LAND (KM) 1321 1261 1167 1051 941 645 257 82 597 1159 1408 891 364 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 32.5 33.4 34.6 35.8 39.6 44.6 49.5 54.3 58.0 60.6 61.3 60.7 LONG(DEG W) 62.5 62.2 61.8 61.4 60.9 59.1 56.4 52.4 47.0 39.5 30.0 20.0 9.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 13 16 24 28 28 29 27 26 24 25 HEAT CONTENT 25 29 28 8 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 6. 0. -7. -12. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -26. -29. -32. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 12. 9. 7. 2. -4. -9. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 9. 18. 21. 9. -5. -19. -33. -45. -54. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/09/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/09/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)