* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL132012 09/09/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 82 79 75 65 51 39 26 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 84 82 79 75 65 51 39 26 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 84 82 80 78 72 64 55 45 38 34 32 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 10 14 20 18 36 31 4 52 66 50 34 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 3 3 7 5 12 13 0 -2 3 2 SHEAR DIR 298 345 18 33 28 30 26 86 205 214 226 264 284 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.2 26.8 23.0 17.3 14.7 13.8 15.0 14.8 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 127 129 129 127 125 97 77 72 71 73 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 102 104 107 108 107 109 88 73 68 68 69 70 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -52.3 -51.0 -50.2 -48.5 -47.5 -49.0 -51.2 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 9 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 37 33 31 32 32 28 37 37 30 31 34 46 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 14 16 14 14 10 8 10 14 11 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR -60 -65 -50 -47 -54 -64 -47 -6 -20 -19 -19 -54 -136 200 MB DIV -3 -19 -30 -34 -23 -45 -19 -13 -2 -13 -22 -19 -16 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 -1 -3 -17 12 -22 -76 -71 -39 4 16 LAND (KM) 1684 1664 1646 1597 1551 1380 1070 708 671 1000 1452 1047 475 LAT (DEG N) 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.9 34.0 35.1 37.9 42.4 48.1 51.9 53.9 55.1 54.7 LONG(DEG W) 42.9 43.4 43.8 44.7 45.5 47.2 47.8 46.5 43.8 39.9 33.8 26.1 17.2 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 7 8 10 19 27 26 21 22 24 26 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 3 4 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. -16. -23. -31. -37. -42. -45. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -6. -3. -3. -6. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -2. 0. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -6. -8. -7. -3. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -10. -20. -34. -46. -59. -69. -79. -85. -86. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132012 MICHAEL 09/09/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 48.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132012 MICHAEL 09/09/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 8( 17) 5( 21) 2( 23) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)