* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/09/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 56 61 67 60 50 36 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 56 61 67 55 45 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 54 57 60 63 50 40 33 31 32 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 4 1 7 11 42 71 72 56 46 40 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -3 0 -2 -1 19 9 2 -2 0 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 134 98 117 228 201 210 204 215 238 253 258 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.4 22.4 14.1 11.4 11.4 12.9 11.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 141 136 133 96 75 72 71 72 71 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 125 122 118 118 89 73 70 69 69 69 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.2 -50.2 -50.1 -49.6 -48.5 -46.5 -45.1 -44.9 -44.5 -43.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 7 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 47 51 52 46 38 35 51 59 56 56 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 32 30 31 29 32 40 38 38 34 26 24 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 40 57 83 108 142 120 179 196 261 256 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 38 32 41 92 114 25 80 31 12 10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -7 -6 12 3 -8 -105 -104 19 21 33 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1230 1112 997 863 748 368 119 703 1371 1223 636 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.7 33.9 35.1 36.7 38.2 43.2 50.3 56.0 59.9 61.9 62.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.3 61.9 61.4 60.7 60.0 57.4 52.9 46.1 37.1 26.1 13.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 15 16 21 33 37 33 29 29 29 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 21 9 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 11 CX,CY: 2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. -1. -7. -11. -13. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -23. -28. -32. -35. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -22. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. 0. 5. 4. 4. 1. -8. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 13. 14. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 11. 17. 10. 0. -14. -33. -42. -49. -53. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/09/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/09/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)